Predictions — Section 04

What would break the theory

A theory that cannot be falsified is not a theory of anything. RTC makes five core predictions, each with an experimental design, a predicted empirical signature, and a clear condition under which the theory fails. These are the bets — the places RTC stakes its credibility.

01

Metacognition collapses before perception

Meta-Governance · Layer 5
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The Claim

When the recursive meta-governance layer is disrupted, metacognitive accuracy (meta-d′) should degrade before basic perceptual sensitivity (d′) collapses. The system can still see — but it loses the capacity to know what it sees.

Experimental Design

TMS or pharmacological disruption of dorsolateral and frontopolar prefrontal cortex during a perceptual decision task. Measure d′ (perceptual sensitivity) and meta-d′ (metacognitive accuracy) across increasing disruption levels.

Predicted Signature

Two divergent curves. Perceptual sensitivity (d′) holds nearly flat as disruption increases. Metacognitive accuracy (meta-d′) drops earlier and steeper. The dissociation is the signature.

Falsification Condition

If d′ and meta-d′ degrade at the same rate, or if meta-d′ remains intact while d′ collapses, the bounded-recursion hypothesis is in trouble. The claim is that meta-governance is a separable, prior layer — not just a downstream consequence of perception.

Predicted Data Shape
Conceptual — illustrating the predicted shape, not simulated data.
HighLowDisruption LevelSensitivitymeta-d′d′ (perception)the gap is the signature
02

Disrupting temporal binding fragments perspective

Diachronic Reconstitution · Layer 6
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The Claim

Disruption of temporal integration (via ketamine, certain seizure types, or experimental binding manipulations) should produce subjective fragmentation of the lived now — discrete episodic slices rather than continuous perspective — while moment-to-moment perception remains intact.

Experimental Design

Pharmacological challenge with sub-anesthetic ketamine combined with first-person reports and continuous-flash suppression timing tasks. Measure subjective continuity of experience alongside objective temporal-binding window width.

Predicted Signature

Temporal binding window widens or fragments. Subjective reports show 'time slices' or discontinuity. Critically: this should occur even when single-moment perceptual accuracy is preserved. Continuity collapses without perception collapsing.

Falsification Condition

If temporal-binding disruption produces no subjective discontinuity — or if subjective continuity is preserved purely by intact moment-to-moment perception — RTC's claim that perspective requires diachronic reconstitution is weakened.

Predicted Data Shape
Conceptual — illustrating the predicted shape, not simulated data.
BaselineDisrupted Temporal BindingTime →continuity gives way to discrete slices
03

Salience modulates what becomes recursively stable

Salience · Layer 3
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The Claim

Emotionally and biologically salient stimuli should preferentially enter recursive stabilization — they become the contents that persist as conscious distinctions — independent of objective stimulus strength. Salience does not just amplify; it gates what the recursive architecture takes up.

Experimental Design

Continuous-flash suppression or attentional-blink paradigm with stimuli matched on physical properties but varying in personal/emotional salience. Measure breakthrough rate, dwell time in conscious access, and post-experiment recall.

Predicted Signature

Salience-weighted stimuli cross conscious access threshold faster and persist longer, with the gap widening at low signal strength. The interaction term — salience × signal strength — is where RTC predicts the strongest effect.

Falsification Condition

If breakthrough and dwell are determined entirely by physical signal strength with no salience modulation, or if salience effects are uniform rather than gating, the claim that salience structures recursive uptake fails.

Predicted Data Shape
Conceptual — illustrating the predicted shape, not simulated data.
P=1P=0Signal StrengthConscious Accessthreshhigh saliencelow salience
04

Without self-world recursion, no genuine perspective

Self-in-World · Layer 4
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The Claim

Systems with sophisticated signal processing but no recursive self-in-world model will fail behavioral and neural markers of perspective — even when their task performance is high. This is the predictive bridge from human consciousness to AI evaluation.

Experimental Design

Battery of perspective-dependent tasks (rubber-hand illusion analogues, perspective-taking, source-monitoring, self-other distinction) administered to candidate systems: large language models, agentic models, memory-augmented systems, and embodied robotic agents with explicit self-world models. Compare against human baselines and against task-only performance metrics.

Predicted Signature

Strong dissociation between raw task performance and perspective-dependent measures. Systems without explicit self-world recursion fail perspective markers regardless of how well they perform on the underlying tasks. Performance and perspective decouple.

Falsification Condition

If systems without self-world recursion pass perspective markers, or if perspective markers reduce to task performance, the architectural claim that self-in-world modeling is necessary for perspective is undermined.

Predicted Data Shape
Conceptual — illustrating the predicted shape, not simulated data.
HighLowTask PerformancePerspective Markerswith self-world recursionwithoutperformance andperspective decouple
05

Bounded recursion stabilizes; unbounded recursion does not

The Whole Architecture
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The Claim

Conscious perspective requires recursion to operate within bounded ranges. Too little recursive depth produces reactivity without reflection. Too much recursion without governance produces unstable self-reference. Stability lives in a middle band — and this should be measurable as a U-shaped relationship between recursive depth and perspective integrity.

Experimental Design

Cross-state and cross-population study: meditators (variable recursive depth), psychedelic states (high recursion), dissociative states (disrupted governance), depressive rumination (recursion without bounded termination), and waking baseline. Measure recursive depth (via prefrontal-DMN coupling and neurophenomenological report), governance markers, and perspective stability.

Predicted Signature

An inverted-U curve. Perspective stability peaks at intermediate recursive depth with intact governance. It falls off on the low end (reactive) and the high end (over-recursive). The signature is the curvature itself — not a monotonic relationship.

Falsification Condition

If perspective stability is monotonic with recursive depth (more is always better, or less is always better), the bounded-recursion claim — arguably RTC's central architectural commitment — is wrong. This is the prediction RTC most stakes its identity on.

Predicted Data Shape
Conceptual — illustrating the predicted shape, not simulated data.
HighLowRecursive DepthPerspective StabilityReactiveStableUnboundedstability requires bounded recursion
On the status of these predictions

Several of these predictions have partial empirical support from existing literature — meta-d′ dissociations, ketamine-induced temporal fragmentation, attentional salience effects on conscious access. RTC's contribution is not the individual predictions but the architectural frame that ties them together: each is a test of a specific layer in the recursive structure, and the bounded- recursion hypothesis (Prediction 5) is the integrative claim that organizes the rest. Falsifying any one weakens the architecture. Falsifying Prediction 5 would require RTC to be substantially rebuilt.